Nagelsmann seeks "holy path": Reality flies in the face of the national coach

After the debacle in Slovakia, the German national football team struggled to a 3-1 victory over Northern Ireland. The result seems more decisive than it actually is. And the second match of the World Cup qualifiers also shows that the German national team and their coach are miles away from their expectations.

One can imagine the reality of the national coach as a balancing act. It's late in the evening in Cologne-Müngersdorf, the total lunar eclipse almost over, when Julian Nagelsmann gives a short lecture on football philosophy in the stadium's press room. The topic is "super-complex and beyond the scope," the lecturer himself admits, so it will only be presented here in a (very) simplified form.

The national coach, as he explains it, tries to approach a "holy path" with his lineups. Nagelsmann (and every other coach) always balances between two approaches: stability and flexibility. It sounds complicated, but simplified: he either always does the same thing with different players, or he always does something different with the same players. Both have advantages and disadvantages, and the answer lies somewhere in the middle. A balancing act, in fact.

As complex as the theory is, the practice is simple. For the crucial World Cup qualifier against league leaders Northern Ireland, Nagelsmann opted for the first option (as he has done for the past year and a half). His response to the debacle in Bratislava and the 2-0 defeat to Slovakia was a total of five changes to the starting eleven. It sounds like a panic reaction, but it's the opposite: At the same time, the national coach is scaling back his willingness to experiment and significantly simplifying the tactics. Instead of any fluid variations like against Slovakia, the German national team will start with three fixed central defenders and a new central midfielder. Stability at the expense of flexibility, in other words.

First whistles, then cheers

And lo and behold: The changes have somewhat improved the DFB's condition. The national coach sees that his team is starting the game with (at least a little) more energy than against Slovakia. In just the seventh minute, the not-to-capacity crowd in the Cologne stadium is celebrating the first German goal. Nick Woltemade, a man worth €90 million (he won't be getting rid of that price tag anytime soon), quickly wins the ball in midfield and then sends Bayern star Serge Gnabry on his way with a through ball. He, in turn, finishes while running alone toward the Northern Irish goal.

Nagelsmann and the fans who support the German national team hope this goal will release some of the pressure that has been building up over the past few days. But things turn out differently. After the "catastrophe" (Florian Wirtz) in Bratislava, it's clear that the bitter defeat is still fresh in the hearts of the players. The German game features plenty of sideways passing, remains sluggish, uncreative – and, above all, focused on safety. It's only unfortunate when even that doesn't work. After defensive leader Antonio Rüdiger loses the ball and Waldemar Anton subsequently misplaces his pass, the Northern Irish shock the German national team – and scores from a corner in the 34th minute to make it 1-1.

The German national team patient subsequently slipped back into a coma. Uncertainty spread, and the German national team's already low-risk approach became even more cautious. This caused discontent: the German fans responded with loud whistles at halftime. Even after the break, the match remained a tough one. New momentum came with the substitutions after the hour mark: BVB pro Maximilian Beier replaced the hapless Woltemade; Mainz's Nadiem Amiri replaced Gnabry. The German national team's game became increasingly emotional (as the national coach had demanded), and the final 30 minutes, according to Nagelsmann, even "went towards 'good'." The result was tangible: Amiri scored to make it 2-1, and Wirtz scored a magnificent direct free kick to make it 3-1.

And yet, this match once again impressively demonstrates how far this German team is from the national coach's dreams—or how much he misjudged them. While the four-time world champions struggled to secure a 3-1 victory against the 71st-ranked team, their supposed rivals for the World Cup title were playing in entirely different spheres. Meanwhile, Spain thrashed Turkey 6-0, while Belgium scored a total of twelve goals in both matches. Italy and Portugal also won their midweek matches 5-0.

But what will happen to the World Cup title?

But what does the national coach himself think? He remains tight-lipped. Overall, he leaves the Northern Ireland game with "a lot of insights," Nagelsmann says. He doesn't want to get involved in any extremes. "We're trying to win the four games so we can focus on ourselves." That, in turn, sounds considerably more humble than it did a week ago. Nagelsmann's original plan was different.

The World Cup qualifiers weren't just meant to secure a spot in the mega-tournament on the other side of the Atlantic. The national coach also wanted to dispel the doubts that had arisen in the matches following the European Championship on home soil. The goal was to cultivate the painstakingly built self-confidence. This meant six matches of dominance on the way to the World Cup title.

But the reality is completely different and not at all complex. The first two matches alone have produced three dismal halves. Slovakia and Northern Ireland have exposed Germany's problems: a clear strategy is lacking, an idea the protagonists can cling to. The fact that the German national team managed to turn things around against Northern Ireland and played 30 decent minutes also has something to do with the opponent. Coach Michael O'Neill, for his part, lamented his own squad's lack of depth after the game. "We have to bring on players who aren't regular starters for their clubs," he said. He also had to rely on 18- and 20-year-olds.

After the debacle in Bratislava, Nagelsmann questioned several things. "Perhaps we really do need to focus less on quality and more on players who simply give it their all," he said. This is reminiscent of a recurring theme from the home European Championship: the rigid role principle of "workers" and "workers." However, it seems that this has been lost over time. Is the call for "emotions" a diversionary tactic for a lack of structure? Against Northern Ireland, we got a glimpse of what "less quality" can look like.

"But that's how he is and that's how we love him"

Added to this are the problems this national team already has. With Jamal Musiala, Kai Havertz, Niclas Füllkrug, Deniz Undav, and Tim Kleindienst, five potential starters are currently out in attack. In terms of quality behind them, the German player pool is nowhere near as deep as in Spain, France, or Portugal. This can be extended to all positions. With captain Joshua Kimmich relegated to the center of midfield, there's also a lack of a proper right-back. No duo has yet been able to establish themselves in the crucial midfield position for a long time.

How will Nagelsmann react to the two September matches? The last time the German national team came this close to rock bottom in recent history was November 2023 – the horrific internationals against Turkey (2-3) and Austria (0-2) reverberated long after the match. Nagelsmann radically restructured the national team over Christmas. He brought Toni Kroos out of DFB retirement and made his selections strictly based on form and performance. The European Championship at home did the rest. This time, there's neither time nor room for maneuver: World Cup qualifiers continue in October, against Northern Ireland and Luxembourg. Will there be similarly radical reforms this time?

And it's not just the squad that's a delicate matter – the same applies to communication. After the dramatic European Championship quarterfinal exit against Spain, Nagelsmann allowed himself to be carried away and declare the World Cup title as his goal. He defended this again in Bratislava. It would be "unbelievable" and a "fatal sign" to abandon this goal now, he said. But would it really be? DFB sporting director Rudi Völler both defended and criticized the national coach. "For some, it may have gone too far," Völler said on the RTL microphone. "But that's the way he is, and that's how we love him." Another thing we're learning these days: criticism is sometimes a balancing act.